Small Glimmering Shard
Trade Goods · Enchanting · item 10978 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 90 | 51% | 94% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 70 | 72% | 80% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| over +30% | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 131 sales out of 169 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 4s 97c | 74% | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 5s 24c | 64% | 92% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| +0% 5s 52c | 53% | 86% | 97% | 97% | 97% |
| +5% 5s 80c | 44% | 77% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| +10% 6s 7c | 36% | 68% | 88% | 88% | 88% |
| +20% 6s 62c | 25% | 51% | 74% | 74% | 74% |
| +30% 7s 18c | 17% | 37% | 58% | 58% | 58% |
| +50% 8s 28c | 8% | 19% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -5.43 ± 1.33: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.60. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 71% of listed quantity across 10 postings (HHI 0.519, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 96% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 21:49 | 4s 5c | 19s 99c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 21:49 | 4s 5c | 19s 99c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 3s 79c | 1g 3s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 3s 79c | 1g 3s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 3s 79c | 1g 3s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 3s 79c | 1g 3s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 3s 79c | 1g 3s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 3s 79c | 1g 3s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 3s 79c | 1g 3s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 3s 79c | 1g 3s | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Mystic Mushroom Enchanting |
1 | – |
 Glimmering Staff Enchanting |
2 | – |
 Soulstaff Enchanting |
1 | – |
 Orb of Mystic Insight Enchanting |
2 | – |
 Orb of Souls Enchanting |
2 | – |
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