Greater Magic Essence
Trade Goods · Enchanting · item 10939 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 318 | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| floor to +10% | 84 | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| +10% to +30% | 86 | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 172 sales out of 492 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 3s 6c | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| −5% 3s 23c | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| +0% 3s 40c | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| +5% 3s 57c | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% |
| +10% 3s 74c | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% |
| +20% 4s 8c | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% |
| +30% 4s 42c | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% |
| +50% 5s 10c | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -0.03 ± 0.52: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.00. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 17% of listed quantity across 41 postings (HHI 0.074, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 39% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 3s 55c | 1g 2s | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 3s 54c | 1g 2s | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 3s 54c | 1g 2s | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 3s 53c | 1g 2s | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 3s 51c | 1g 2s | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 3s 51c | 1g 2s | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 3s 50c | 1g 2s | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 3s 9c | 4s | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 3s 9c | 4s | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 3s 9c | 4s | 20 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Blackfathom Mana Oil Enchanting |
1 | – |
 Mystic Mushroom Enchanting |
2 | – |
 Tenets of the Silver Hand Enchanting |
1 | – |
 Polished Driftwood Icon Enchanting |
2 | – |
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