Lesser Magic Essence
Trade Goods · Enchanting · item 10938 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 130 | 46% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 48% |
| floor to +10% | 15 | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| +10% to +30% | 10 | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| over +30% | 15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 51 sales out of 170 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 15c | 78% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% |
| −5% 1s 22c | 59% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| +0% 1s 28c | 41% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| +5% 1s 34c | 28% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
| +10% 1s 41c | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% |
| +20% 1s 54c | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| +30% 1s 66c | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| +50% 1s 92c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -9.95 ± 3.89: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.39. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 18% of listed quantity across 35 postings (HHI 0.105, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 38% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 1s 30c | 5s 25c | 7 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 1s 23c | 5s 25c | 7 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 1s 37c | 6s | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 1s 37c | 6s | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 1s 37c | 6s | 5 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Lesser Magic Wand Enchanting |
1 | −63c |
 Greater Magic Wand Enchanting |
2 | −1s 11c |
 Runed Silver Rod Enchanting |
4 | – |
 Blackfathom Sharpening Stone Blacksmithing |
1 | – |
 Glowing Copper Boots Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Crusader's Chain Shirt Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
 Crusader's Chain Leggings Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
 Crusader's Chain Helm Blacksmithing |
6 | – |
 Crusader's Boots Blacksmithing |
5 | – |
 Crusader's Gloves Blacksmithing |
3 | – |
 Crusader's Chain Belt Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
| Crusader's Silvered Chain Shirt Blacksmithing |
8 | – |
| Crusader's Silvered Chain Leggings Blacksmithing |
8 | – |
| Crusader's Silvered Chain Helm Blacksmithing |
6 | – |
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