FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Lean Wolf Flank

Trade Goods · Cooking · item 1015 · vendor 24c

own demand model

Floor1s 73ccheapest 1s 39c

Median2s 63cby quantity

Listed1,236502 listings

Sold / day769avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%over +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	566	18%	18%	18%	18%	18%
floor to +10%	21	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
over +30%	82	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 99 sales out of 670 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 1s 56c	12%	12%	12%	12%	12%
−5% 1s 64c	11%	11%	11%	11%	11%
+0% 1s 73c	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%
+5% 1s 82c	9%	9%	9%	9%	9%
+10% 1s 90c	9%	9%	9%	9%	9%
+20% 2s 8c	8%	8%	8%	8%	8%
+30% 2s 25c	7%	7%	7%	7%	7%
+50% 2s 60c	6%	6%	6%	6%	6%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.57 ± 0.38: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.86. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at2s 30ceach · +33% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 3c

Chance it sells7%~11.29h on the AH

Expected value1s 47c1s 23c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 8% of listed quantity across 51 postings (HHI 0.034, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 24% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	1s 40c	1s 75c	4
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	1s 25c	1s 75c	4
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	1s 19c	1s 75c	4
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	2s 9c	3s 35c	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	2s 9c	3s 35c	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	2s 9c	3s 35c	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	2s 9c	3s 35c	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1s 85c	3s 35c	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1s 80c	3s 35c	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1s 69c	3s 35c	1

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Lean Wolf Steak Cooking	1	83c
Seasoned Wolf Kabob Cooking	2	18c